China’s policy towards Taiwan has long been a source of tension in the region. The Chinese Communist Party maintains its stance on the One China policy, refusing to renounce the use of force to achieve reunification. This approach has sparked concerns about regional stability and raised questions about the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Recent developments have highlighted China’s determination to counter what it perceives as external interference in its Taiwan policy. The Chinese government has stepped up military drills near Taiwan and issued strong warnings against any moves towards Taiwan independence. These actions have implications for regional security and international relations, as other nations grapple with how to respond to China’s assertive stance on this sensitive issue.
China’s Stance on Taiwan
China’s position on Taiwan remains unwavering, with Beijing asserting its claim over the island as an integral part of its territory. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintains a firm stance on the One China policy, which views Taiwan as a province of China.
Refusal to renounce force
Beijing has consistently refused to rule out the use of military force to achieve reunification with Taiwan. The Chinese government has made it clear that it will not commit to renouncing the use of force as a means to bring Taiwan under its control. This position has been reiterated by various Chinese officials, including the spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, who stated that China will “never promise to renounce the use of force”.
The Chinese government justifies this stance by claiming that it is aimed at deterring external interference and countering a small minority of separatists. However, this approach has raised concerns about regional stability and the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Peaceful reunification efforts
Despite its refusal to renounce force, China maintains that it is committed to pursuing peaceful reunification with Taiwan. The Chinese government has expressed its willingness to “strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and endeavor”. This approach includes promoting cross-strait integration through various initiatives and regional experimentation.
China has proposed a “one country, two systems” option for Taiwan, similar to the arrangement in Hong Kong, which would allow the island significant autonomy under Beijing’s control. However, this proposal has been met with skepticism and resistance from Taiwan, particularly in light of recent developments in Hong Kong.
Targeting external interference
A significant aspect of China’s Taiwan policy involves countering what it perceives as external interference in cross-strait relations. Beijing has consistently opposed any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, viewing such interactions as a violation of the One China principle.
China has issued warnings to the international community against what it considers violations of the One China principle. The Chinese government has stated that any such violations will face “joint resistance of all Chinese people and the international community”. This stance extends to other countries as well, with China urging nations like the United Kingdom and Japan to refrain from actions that it perceives as interfering in its internal affairs regarding Taiwan.
In response to perceived external threats, China has increased its military activities around Taiwan. The Chinese military has conducted multiple rounds of large-scale war games in recent years, which Beijing describes as necessary operations to safeguard state sovereignty and national unity. These exercises serve as a demonstration of China’s resolve and its capability to respond to what it views as provocations from Taiwan independence forces and external actors.
Recent Military Drills
Large-scale exercises around Taiwan
China has recently conducted extensive military exercises around Taiwan, demonstrating its resolve to counter what it perceives as threats to its sovereignty. On October 14, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a new round of drills dubbed “Joint Sword-2024B”. These exercises involved troops from the army, navy, air force, and rocket force, and were carried out in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, south, and east of Taiwan.
The drills focused on various aspects of military operations, including sea-air combat-readiness patrols, blockades of key ports and areas, and assaults on maritime and ground targets. The Chinese military described these exercises as a way to test their joint operations capabilities and as a stern warning to Taiwan independence forces.
Response to Taiwan President’s speech
The timing of these military drills was significant, as they came just days after Taiwan’s National Day celebrations on October 10. During this event, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te delivered a speech that Beijing viewed as provocative. In his address, Lai asserted that China has no right to represent Taiwan and vowed to resist annexation or encroachment upon Taiwan’s sovereignty.
China’s response to Lai’s speech was swift and forceful. The Chinese government accused Lai of advocating a “new two-state theory” of Taiwan independence. Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, warned that Lai’s “scheming ‘independence’ provocation is the root problem facing peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”.
Potential for future drills
The recent military exercises are part of a broader pattern of increased Chinese military activity around Taiwan. Since 2022, the tempo of Chinese operations has remained high, with daily incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait. These actions serve multiple purposes for Beijing, including signaling its capabilities to Taiwan and its allies, testing Taiwan’s responses, and normalizing large-scale military maneuvers in the region.
Analysts suggest that future drills are likely to continue and may even intensify. The Chinese military has embarked on a massive build-up in recent years, including the development of hypersonic missiles, aircraft carriers, and fifth-generation combat aircraft. This growing military capability provides Beijing with more options for conducting exercises and applying pressure on Taiwan.
However, it’s important to note that while China maintains its stance on the use of force, it also emphasizes its commitment to peaceful reunification efforts. The Chinese government has proposed a “one country, two systems” option for Taiwan, similar to the arrangement in Hong Kong, which would allow the island significant autonomy under Beijing’s control.
Taiwan’s Response
Taiwan has consistently rejected China’s sovereignty claims and defended its own sovereignty in the face of increasing pressure from Beijing. President Lai Ching-te, in his National Day address, reaffirmed Taiwan’s commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait while also expressing the nation’s readiness to collaborate with China to address global issues. Lai emphasized the importance of dialog based on equality and dignity, highlighting Taiwan’s dedication to bolstering resilience through the Four Pillars of Peace action plan.
The Taiwanese government has firmly opposed China’s “one country, two systems” proposal, which Beijing has suggested as a framework for reunification. This proposal is deeply unpopular among the Taiwanese public, especially in light of recent events in Hong Kong. Even the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, which traditionally favors closer ties with China, has rejected this framework.
Taiwan’s response to China’s pressure has been multifaceted. The government has sought to strengthen its defense capabilities, with President Tsai Ing-wen prioritizing increased defense spending. In 2023, Taiwan’s defense budget reached a record of more than INR 1591.55 billion. Additionally, Taiwanese lawmakers approved plans to spend an extra INR 720.39 billion on defense over five years, focusing on acquiring cruise missiles, naval mines, and advanced surveillance systems to defend Taiwan’s coasts.
International support for Taiwan has grown in recent years, partly in response to China’s increasing assertiveness. The United States maintains a robust unofficial relationship with the island and continues to sell defense equipment to its military. Other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, have shown support by sending military vessels to transit the Taiwan Strait.
Despite tensions with China, Taiwan has expressed willingness to cooperate on global issues. President Lai urged China to contribute to regional and global peace and security, leveraging its influence to help end conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This approach demonstrates Taiwan’s commitment to being a responsible international actor while maintaining its stance on sovereignty.
Taiwan’s response to China’s policy has been characterized by a delicate balance between asserting its sovereignty, strengthening its defenses, seeking international support, and expressing openness to dialog and cooperation on global issues. As the situation in the Taiwan Strait remains tense, Taiwan continues to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape while striving to preserve its democratic way of life and de facto independence.
Implications for Regional Stability
Heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait
The Taiwan Strait has become one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints, with tensions likely to remain high for the foreseeable future. China’s aggressive stance toward Taiwan has intensified in recent years, with a significant increase in military provocations. The scale and frequency of Chinese aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) have risen dramatically, creating a potentially volatile situation.
These military activities, including large-scale war games and naval exercises, have fueled fears of a dangerous “new normal” in the region. China’s recent drills, dubbed “Joint Sword-2024B,” involved troops from various branches of the military and focused on sea-air combat-readiness patrols, blockades of key ports, and assaults on maritime and ground targets. Such actions have heightened concerns about the potential for accidental escalation or miscalculation leading to conflict.
US involvement and arms sales
The United States has played a significant role in shaping the dynamics of the Taiwan Strait. As Taiwan’s most important international supporter, the US has maintained a delicate balance between its One China policy and its commitment to Taiwan’s security. This commitment is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the US to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons.
Recent years have seen an increase in US arms sales to Taiwan, aimed at bolstering the island’s defense capabilities. In 2022, Taiwan’s defense budget reached a record of more than INR 1591.55 billion, with plans to spend an additional INR 720.39 billion over five years on advanced defense systems. These sales have included Patriot missiles, F-16 fighter jets, and other sophisticated weaponry designed to enhance Taiwan’s ability to resist potential aggression.
The US has also taken steps to strengthen its military presence in the region, including sending naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait and conducting joint exercises with allies. These actions, while intended to deter Chinese aggression, have also contributed to rising tensions and increased the risk of confrontation.
Impact on international relations
The situation in the Taiwan Strait has significant implications for international relations, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s assertive actions have prompted neighboring countries to reassess their security strategies and alliances. Japan, for instance, has doubled its military budget in response to perceived threats from China.
The Taiwan issue has become a focal point in US-China relations, with both sides viewing it as a critical aspect of their broader strategic competition. This has led to a reshaping of alliances in the region, including closer ties between the US and countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
The European Union has also expressed concern about the situation, calling for restraint and dialog to resolve cross-strait differences peacefully. The EU has emphasized the strategic importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral actions that could change the status quo by force.
As tensions continue to simmer, the international community faces the challenge of balancing economic interests with security concerns. The potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait has implications far beyond the immediate region, affecting global trade, supply chains, and geopolitical stability.
Conclusion
China’s Taiwan policy, characterized by its refusal to renounce force and efforts to counter external interference, has a significant impact on regional stability and international relations. The increasing military activities around Taiwan, coupled with the island’s firm stance on its sovereignty, have created a tense situation in the Taiwan Strait. This delicate balance has prompted responses from various global players, including the United States and other nations in the Asia-Pacific region.
Looking ahead, the situation calls for careful diplomacy and open communication channels to prevent misunderstandings and reduce the risk of conflict. While China maintains its commitment to peaceful reunification, its military posturing and Taiwan’s determination to preserve its de facto independence present ongoing challenges. The international community’s role in promoting dialog and maintaining stability in the region will be crucial to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape.
FAQs
- Why is Taiwan’s independence opposed by China?
China opposes Taiwan’s independence as it views Taiwan and mainland China as integral parts of a single Chinese territory. Additionally, any move towards Taiwanese independence could potentially breach the existing constitution of the Republic of China (Taiwan). - What is the basis of China’s territorial claim over Taiwan?
After Japan’s relinquishment in 1945, the government of the Republic of China took control of Taiwan and later retreated there in 1949 with intentions to reclaim mainland China. Both the Republic of China (ROC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) maintain constitutional claims over mainland China and Taiwan. - In what ways does China pose a threat to Taiwan?
China has recently intensified its military threats towards Taiwan, attempting to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait unilaterally. This contravenes the United Nations Charter’s directives against the use of force and the resolution of disputes through peaceful means. - What is the root of the Taiwan dispute?
The dispute in Taiwan centers around two major political views: one advocating for eventual unification with China under a broader Chinese identity, and the other supporting formal independence to foster a distinct Taiwanese identity. However, a growing number of moderates who favor maintaining the current status quo have emerged in the 21st century.
